Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

نویسندگان

  • Miroslav Trnka
  • Petr Hlavinka
  • Mikhail A Semenov
چکیده

Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Animal health aspects of adaptation to climate change: beating the heat and parasites in a warming Europe.

Weather patterns in northern European regions have changed noticeably over the past several decades, featuring warmer, wetter weather with more extreme events. The climate is projected to continue on this trajectory for the foreseeable future, even under the most modest warming scenarios. Such changes will have a significant impact on livestock farming, both directly through effects on the anim...

متن کامل

Evaluation of the efficiency of APSIM-Wheat model for simulation of phenology and grain yield of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in drylands of west and northwest of Iran

Crop simulation models are valuable tools for prediction of crop performance under various weather conditions and allow designing methods to limit the negative impacts of adverse environmental constraints. Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) is a comprehensive model that simulates the performance of a wide range of crops in response to climatic, soil and management factors. In thi...

متن کامل

Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change

To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat d...

متن کامل

Effect of Climate Change on potato Production and assessment adaptation strategies in Fereydounshahr

In order to study was to evaluate future climate Fereydunshahr of Isfahan for the next hundred years and its effect on potato production in Fereydunshahr. To forecast future climate conditions in Fereydunshahr were collected daily climate data including maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours in this region during the period 1982 to 2012. In this study was used to simulate ...

متن کامل

Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events

Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Journal of the Royal Society, Interface

دوره 12 112  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2015